Destaques da Semana:

• EUA: Foco no PCE O índice de preços de gastos com consumo (PCE), a métrica de inflação preferida pelo Federal Reserve (Fed), será divulgado na quinta-feira (29). Este dado é fundamental para as decisões do Fed na próxima reunião sobre taxas de juros.
• Brasil: IPCA-15 e PIB em Pauta Na terça-feira (27), o IPCA-15 trará uma prévia da inflação oficial. Já na quarta-feira (28), sai o PIB do quarto trimestre de 2023, indicador importante do desempenho econômico brasileiro.
• Americanas no Vermelho: A divulgação do prejuízo líquido de R$ 4,611 bilhões nos nove primeiros meses de 2023 impactou as ações da Americanas (AMER3).
• Resultados Corporativos dos EUA: Importantes empresas americanas divulgam seus balanços, incluindo Salesforce (quarta-feira), Apple e Amazon (quinta-feira).

Panorama Global

• Bolsas Asiáticas Misturadas: As bolsas na Ásia fecharam sem uma tendência única. O Nikkei (Japão) subiu, enquanto o Xangai Composto (China) encerrou em baixa.
• Europa em Queda: Os mercados europeus operam em baixa acompanhando o clima de cautela global.
• Petróleo e Minério de Ferro Recuam: Os preços dessas importantes commodities caem refletindo preocupações com a inflação e com a demanda global.

Fique de olho! Acompanhe atualizações sobre esses e outros indicadores ao longo da semana para compreender melhor a movimentação dos mercados.

Na esfera doméstica, os investidores aguardam o índice IBC-Br do Banco Central para dezembro – tido como uma prévia do PIB– com previsão de crescimento de 0,4%. Já no âmbito corporativo, as empresas Americanas e Carrefour divulgam seus resultados após o encerramento dos mercados.

Os mercados europeus, por sua vez, iniciaram a semana em baixa, revertendo a tendência positiva da semana anterior. O petróleo sofre queda nos preços, influenciado por comentários do Federal Reserve (Fed) indicando uma postura mais gradual em relação a potenciais cortes nas taxas de juros. Outra commodity importante, o minério de ferro, também apresenta recuo na China devido ao aumento nos estoques e fracas margens do aço.

Destaques do Dia

• EUA em compasso de espera: A pausa para o feriado do Dia do Presidente mantém as bolsas de Nova York fechadas hoje. No entanto, há uma busca geral de recuperação após a interrupção da sequência de altas recente.
• Otimismo Chinês: Os investidores chineses demonstram forte confiança na retomada econômica, respaldados por números positivos no turismo durante o Ano Novo Lunar. O Banco Central Chinês (PBoC) manteve sua taxa básica de juros inalterada, mas há expectativa de cortes ainda hoje.
• Brasil na expectativa: O foco está no IBC-Br de dezembro e nos resultados da Americanas e Carrefour. Estes indicadores podem dar pistas sobre o desempenho da economia brasileira e do setor de varejo.
• Europa recua, Petróleo cai: A Europa parece corrigir uma semana positiva, enquanto os comentários do Fed sobre taxas de juros afetam diretamente as cotações do petróleo.
• Minério de Ferro recua: A commodity vital para a indústria do aço sofre pressão na China diante de fatores como aumento de estoques e margens reduzidas.

Fique atento para maiores atualizações dos mercados ao longo do dia!

Gold is a precious metal that has been valued for centuries for its beauty, durability, and scarcity.

It is a “safe haven” asset, meaning its price tends to rise in times of economic or political uncertainty. Therefore, gold is an attractive option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and protect themselves from market volatility.

Fundamental factors affecting the price of gold.

The price of gold is influenced by a wide range of factors, including supply and demand, market sentiment, monetary policy and geopolitical tensions.

Offer and demand.

The supply of gold is relatively stable, as mining production is a slow and expensive process.

Demand for gold, on the other hand, can vary significantly, depending on a number of factors, such as the global economy, inflation, and political uncertainty.

An increase in demand for gold with a low supply can increase the price. On the other hand, an excess of supply, with weak demand, can lower prices.

Market sentiment.

Market sentiment is a measure of investor confidence in the global economy. A positive market sentiment usually leads to an increase in demand for gold as investors look for a safe asset to invest in.

Conversely, negative market sentiment typically leads to decreased demand for gold as investors seek out riskier assets with higher potential for returns.

Monetary politics

Central banks’ monetary policies can also affect the price of gold. A rise in interest rates typically leads to a decrease in demand for gold as investors earn higher returns on cash deposits.

Conversely, a decrease in interest rates typically leads to an increase in demand for gold, as investors seek assets with higher return potential.

Geopolitical tensions

Geopolitical tensions can also affect the price of gold.

In times of political uncertainty, investors often look to low risk assets, such as gold, to protect themselves from market volatility and turbulence.

Trading strategies for gold

There are numerous trading strategies that can be applied to gold. Some of the most popular strategies include:

• Scalping: This strategy seeks to obtain small profits frequently, operating in very short time intervals, from minutes to hours.
• Arbitration: This strategy seeks to take advantage of small price differences between different markets.
• Trend following: This strategy seeks to identify price trends and trade in the direction of the trend.
• Swing trading: This strategy seeks to obtain profits in the medium term, operating in time intervals of days to weeks.
• Positional trading: This strategy seeks to obtain long-term benefits, operating in time intervals from months to years.

Technical analysis tools for trading gold

Technical analysis is an important tool for CFD traders as it allows them to identify patterns and trends in prices.

Some of the most popular technical analysis tools include:

• Moving averages: Moving averages are indicators that smooth prices to identify trends.
• Oscillators: Oscillators are indicators that measure the strength of a trend or the probability of a trend change.
• Chartistic figures: Chart figures are patterns that form on price charts and can indicate a change in trend.

Ways to operate with gold.

There are several ways to trade gold. The most common way is to buy physical gold, such as bars or coins. However, this option can be expensive and require secure storage.

Another way to trade gold is through derivative products, such as futures, options or CFDs. Derivatives products allow investors to speculate on the price of gold without having to physically own it.

Trade gold through CFDs

CFDs are a type of contract that allows investors to buy or sell an underlying asset, such as gold, at a price agreed upon at the time the trade is opened.

CFDs are traded on online trading platforms such as FXGlobe.com and offer investors the opportunity to take advantage of leverage, meaning their investing power is increased.

Advantages of trading gold through CFDs

There are several advantages of trading gold through CFDs:

• Liquidity: CFDs are very liquid products, meaning they can be bought and sold easily.
• Flexibility: CFDs allow investors to trade both “directions” (i.e. Buy or Sell) without physically owning the underlying asset.
• Leverage: CFDs offer investors the opportunity to take advantage of leverage, which can increase their investing power.

Disadvantages of trading gold via CFDs

There are also some disadvantages of trading gold via CFDs:

• Risk: Leverage can give an increased investing power but at the same time it reacts the same with the market volatility. Hence, more margin requirements will be needed..
• Costs: CFDs usually involve commissions and other finance/brokerage

How to trade gold through CFDs

To trade gold via CFDs, you will need to open a trading account with a CFD broker.

Once you have an account, you will be able to access an online trading platform that allows you to buy and sell gold CFDs.

Whereto trade CFDs on GOLD

One of the most trusted and well-equipped platform to trade CFDd on gold is FXGlobe.com.

Us We offer key advantages that position us as the ideal option for trading gold as CFD :

• Competitive spreads on the XAU/USD pair, starting from just 0.4 pips. This reduces your operating costs.
• Leverage up to 50:1 available. This way you can open larger positions with less capital.
• Quick execution of orders. Fundamental when gold volatility skyrockets.
• Strong trading platforms like MetaTrader 4 and 5 for optimal technical analysis.
• Advanced tools for risk management: stops, protection against negative balance, etc.
• Access to real-time charts and relevant market news for informed decisions.
• Technical and operations support during business hours.

Additionally, FXGlobe.com does not charge hidden commissions on gold trading. Total costs are clearly outlined in the relevant Costs & Charges tables.

Regulation of CFDs

CFD trading is regulated by different bodies around the world. It is important that traders understand the regulations that apply to CFD trading in their jurisdiction.

It is also important when selecting your CFD Broker to ensure that is properly licensed and authorised for such Services. FXGlobe.com is a duly licensed CFD broker with more than a decade of presence in the market.

Analysis of news and important events

It is important for traders to stay up to date with the latest news and events that could affect the price of gold.

Economic, political and geopolitical news can have a significant impact on the price of gold, so it is important to stay informed of these trends.

Some of the most popular news sources for gold trading include:

• Traditional media: Traditional media, such as newspapers, magazines and television networks, can provide information on the latest economic, political and geopolitical news.
• Financial media: Financial media, such as Bloomberg, CNBC and The Financial Times, can provide more detailed information about financial markets, including gold.
• Trading blogs and websites: Trading blogs and websites can provide information on the latest gold trading trends and strategies.
• Social networks: Social networks, such as Twitter and LinkedIn, can be a good source of breaking news and analysis.

Stay Connected and Elevate Your Trading Experience

Join our dynamic FXGlobe Community to:

• Engage with experienced traders and mentors: Share trading insights, strategies, and experiences with our global community of fellow traders.
• Unleash the power of videos: Access a wealth of educational and informative videos from our team of experts and industry leaders.
• Leverage the guidance of our ambassadors: Gain valuable insights from our seasoned ambassadors, who share their expertise and trading philosophies.
• Stay abreast of the latest market developments: Subscribe to our newsletters and news alerts to receive timely market updates and expert analysis.

Here are some tips for finding reliable news sources for gold trading:

• Choose sources that have a good reputation and provide accurate and up-to-date information.
• Be aware of news source bias. Some sources may be more likely to publish positive or negative news about gold, depending on their editorial agenda.
• Compare different sources to get a more complete view of the situation.

By staying up to date with the latest news and events, traders can make informed decisions about their gold trading.

Steps to trade CFDs on GOLD

1. Choose a CFD broker. There are many CFD brokers that offer gold CFDs, among them FXGlobe.com stands out. Compare commissions, spreads and other costs before choosing a broker.
2. Open a trading account. Once you have chosen a broker, you will need to open a trading account. The account opening process is usually simple and requires basic personal information.
3. Deposit funds. You will need to fund your trading account in order to trade. Accepted deposit methods vary by broker.
4. Download the trading platform. Most CFD brokers offer an online trading platform that you can use to buy and sell CFDs.
5. Choose an order type. There are several order types that you can use to buy or sell CFDs. Choose the order type that best suits your trading strategy.
6. You have the option of using stop loss and take profit. A stop loss is an order that is activated when the price of the underlying asset reaches a certain level. A take profit is an order that is activated when the price of the underlying asset reaches a certain level.
7. Monitor your operation. Once you have placed an order, you will need to monitor your trade to ensure that it is executed as planned.

Tips for trading CFDs on GOLD

• Do your research. Before trading gold via CFDs, it is important that you do your research and understand the risks involved.
• Establish a strategy. It is important to have a trading strategy before starting to trade. Your strategy should take into account your investment objectives and risk tolerance.
• Consider using stop losses. A stop loss is an important tool for managing risk. You can always use a stop loss when trading CFDs.
• Be patient. CFD trading could be lucrative, but it requires patience and discipline. Don’t expect to get rich overnight.

Conclusion

Gold is a valuable asset that can be a good addition to any portfolio. Trading gold through CFDs is a flexible and accessible way to invest in this precious metal.

Embrace a connected trading journey with FXGlobe.

Join the FXGlobe Community today!

En el artículo de hoy, vamos a analizar el cierre del año 2023 para diferentes activos que tenemos en cartera y los escenarios que tenemos para ellos. Nos centraremos en ver métricas que puedan afectar al desempeño a medio plazo de estos mercados y un curioso dato de la acción con mejor desempeño del año. Nvidia.

De momento, empezamos viendo el gráfico del precio de la acción. Ahora viene haciendo un ligero retroceso, y estamos llegando a zonas de soportes que nos marcan el retroceso 38 de Fibonacci y la media simple de 200 sesiones. Quizás podamos ver rebotes en continuación tendencial en estos entornos.

Pero os vamos a compartir una métrica no tan positiva para este tramo final. Y es que está empresa está llegando a una estacionalidad que no le favorece mucho. Vemos en la imagen de abajo que el mes de diciembre es el peor mes de largo. Veremos este año como evoluciona.

Vamos a ver qué pasa con los agregados, es decir, con los índices. De primeras vemos que hay un activo que está poniendo en precio la posible recesión de 2024 y otro que no.

Observamos que el gap que se está creando entre la renta variable y el petróleo es enorme. Obviamente en una situación recesiva, baja la demanda del crudo y por tanto suele bajar su precio. Pero en los mercados de acciones estamos casi en máximos históricos. Es cierto que estamos en una estacionalidad muy favorable, veremos si el 2024 es un año duro o no para estos mercados.

Si pensamos en los indicadores macroeconómicos podemos pensar que es muy probable ver una recesión, o por lo menos una desaceleración. Vemos como los grandes fondos de inversión están aumentando sus niveles de liquidez a niveles que no veíamos hace años.

Pero también es cierto, que estamos ante un año un tanto excepcional, ya que es año de elecciones en Estados Unidos. Fijémonos cómo en estos años, el S&P 500 nunca ha caído durante un año de reelección presidencial y, a pesar de la volatilidad de mercado a corto plazo que es común con la temporada electoral, el desempeño de las acciones es en gran medida independiente de qué partido toma el control de la Casa Blanca

Por lo tanto tenemos factores favorables y desfavorables para el año que viene. Lo ideal será seguirlo día a día, ya que al final, es el precio el que manda y el que nos marcará el camino.

El que está dejando menos dudas, y además tiene unos fundamentales que parecen excelentes por delante es el Bitcoin. Seguimos con las fuertes subida provocadas por la fiebre de los ETFs al contado. Además hay rumores sobre como países como Colombia también lo podrían adoptar, o como el fondo Soberano de Riqueza de Qatar ha ingresado al mercado de Bitcoin y podría estar interesado en comprar hasta $500 mil millones en BTC.

Esto representaría más de la mitad de la capitalización actual de la criptomoneda. De momento esto son solo rumores, pero lo que está claro es que la adopción global continúa creciendo.

Además, observamos como una gran parte de los inversores, los holders, no sueltan el activo ni con las tremendas subidas que estamos teniendo en este 2023. Si nos fijamos en el gráfico que os comparto abajo, comprobamos cómo aunque el precio ha subido casi un 150% en lo que va de año, la cantidad de bitcoin en circulación que no se ha movido en 1 año o más, alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico durante el fin de semana del 70,5%.

En resumen, este si parece un activo que nos está mostrando cualidades positivas para seguir acumulando. La estrategia de TradingPRO es hacer DCA (Dollar cost averaging), que es básicamente el ir acumulando todos los meses mientras vamos adquiriendo a diferentes precios, promediando la tendencia alcista a largo plazo.

En resumen, se viene un final de año, donde parece que la tendencia predominante puede continuar, pero se avecina un 2024, donde lo que hoy es fiesta,s e puede convertir en un funeral. Lo estaremos siguiendo, como siempre, en la comunidad de FXGlobe.

This week in the financial markets was a roller coaster of events, affecting currencies, commodities, and indices worldwide. Let’s dive into the key happenings and their implications for traders.

Key Economic Events

Earlier This Week:

• Monday: The week started with a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, setting the tone for the GBP.
• Tuesday: The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes offered insights into the US Federal Reserve’s stance, impacting USD movements.
• Wednesday: In the US, unemployment claims came in lower than expected at 209K, boosting sentiment towards the labor market. However, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment was slightly adjusted upwards, indicating a cautiously optimistic consumer outlook.
• Thursday: Europe showed mixed signals with its Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, suggesting ongoing challenges in the Eurozone economy. The UK’s Manufacturing PMI outperformed forecasts, providing a glimmer of hope for the British economy.
• Friday: The US’s Flash Manufacturing PMI slightly underperformed, while Services PMI beat expectations, painting a complex picture of the US economic landscape.

Looking Ahead:

• Tuesday, Nov 28: CB Consumer Confidence in the US will be a key indicator to watch, potentially influencing market sentiment.
• Wednesday, Nov 29: The NZD will be in focus with the Official Cash Rate decision and the RBNZ’s monetary policy statements.
• Thursday, Nov 30: The day will be significant with the OPEC-JMMC Meetings and US economic data releases, including the Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment Claims.
• Friday, Dec 1: A pivotal day for the US with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

Market Analysis

In the Charts:

• Forex and Commodities: The past week saw widespread gains against the USD, particularly notable in the indices. Silver showed potential for further upside, while Crude Oil indicated a struggle in determining its direction.
• Indices: After recent gains, technical retracements seem likely, hinting at potential shifts in market dynamics.

Bitcoin is trying to build up to a bullish breakout here, however, if it falls down through the upwards-sloping trendline, it could head down to the next support level before resuming an uptrend.

The U.S. Indices are nice and bullish, but also due for a natural retracement in the near future.

U.S. Oil is still in a downtrend, but has started to display more mixed sentiment.

Gold really testing resistance at the moment – although there are likely to be sellers pushing back, Gold might achieve brand new highs in the near-to-medium future.

Potential Outlook:

The coming week promises to be just as eventful, with significant economic data and statements on the horizon.

Traders should particularly keep an eye on the developments in the US and Eurozone, as well as any geopolitical events that might influence market directions.

That’s our wrap-up for this week. Stay informed and prepared as we navigate these dynamic markets together. For more insights and trading tips, visit FXGlobe.com. And remember, always trade wisely and stay vigilant!

Related Article: https://www.fxglobe.com/what-should-traders-do-when-markets-are-too-volatile/

El optimismo en los mercados parece seguir instalado y las fechas de acción de gracias, BlackFriday y las posteriores navidades, suelen ser fechas estacionalmente alcistas para estos activos.

En el artículo de hoy, vamos a analizar qué esperamos para los índices americanos en este tramo final de año, con esas fechas tan destacadas. Cómo el Bitcoin sigue fuerte y celebra la victoria de otro presidente que lo apoya, Milei en Argentina, mientras seguimos a la espera de la aprobación de los ETFs de Bitcoin al contado.

Temporada de resultados corporativos

De primeras, seguimos en temporada de resultados corporativos de las principales empresas del SP500. Os lo compartimos para que lo tengáis en cuenta si estáis invertido en alguna de estas. Destaca claramente Nvidia, una de las 7 magníficas, que desde nuestro punto de vista está bastante sobrevalorada con un PER por encima del 120.

Bueno, vamos a empezar primero por el escenario que nos propone uno de los grandes de Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs nos plantea su escenario sobre el SP500 en uno de sus últimos research. Si idea es una en el S&P500 lateralidad hasta mediados de 2024 y luego subida a los 4.700 puntos. Os compartimos la imagen:

Desde Morgan Stanley, leemos también como su jefe de estrategia, el “bearish” Mike Wilson también prevé un final de año sin grandes subidas. De hecho dice que los inversores que están esperando un rally de navidad podrán verse decepcionados. Dice que los repuntes en el último trimestre están bajando considerablemente.

Consejo del mercado

Sabemos que ahora el consenso del mercado descuenta que los tipos de interés quizás empiecen a bajar en la reunión de mayo.

La inflación parece que cada vez está más cerca de controlarse (veremos que hace el petróleo en los siguientes meses) y por lo tanto los principales bancos centrales pueden volver a políticas monetarias expansivas. Eso el mercado lo suele celebrar.

Os vamos a compartir un gráfico que es muy interesante, relacionado con lo que veníamos comentando:

Vemos que invertir en el S&P 500 cuando estaba en una tendencia alcista y las tasas estaban cayendo habría tenido un rendimiento del 14,5% anual.

Comparación con el SP500

Compare eso con el escaso 0,79% anual cuando el S&P 500 estaba en una tendencia alcista, pero las tasas de interés estaban subiendo. Por lo tanto, podemos decir que en los últimos 50 años casi todos los rendimientos en el S&P 500 se han logrado cuando las tasas estaban cayendo.

Si nos fijamos en particular en el sector tecnológico, vemos que Microsoft y Apple representan el 30% del Nasdaq y cotizan a los niveles de valoración más altos desde la crisis PuntoCom. Vemos que Apple lleva 5 trimestres en recesión de earnings y Microsoft con dinámicas burbujísticas debido a la IA. Esto,obviamente muestra que tenemos mucho riesgo para este índice en el medio plazo:

Por lo tanto, en nuestra opinión para la renta variable americana, la tendencia sigue siendo clara, y a corto plazo no tenemos indicadores técnicos que no marquen giro de mercado, pero entendemos que el 2024 puede ser un año complicado y hay que ir con pies de plomo.

El Bitcoin y su ganancia de precio

El Bitcoin, en cambio, sigue flotando en noticias muy positivas, seguimos esperando al halving de abril y a las aprobaciones de los ETFs en enero. En relación a estas posibles aprobaciones, vemos una comparativa de lo que pasó cuando aprobaron el ETF del oro.

Estamos esperando el bull run y, como ya hemos dicho en alguna anterior ocasión, esperamos que nos acerquemos a los máximos históricos a finales del año 2024. Nuestro escenario es seguir haciendo dca (acumulando) mientras se encuentre en estos entornos de los 30.000-40.000.

Como siempre, seguiremos todas estas ideas en los siguientes artículos. !Buen trading!

Recent Economic Highlights

A Glimpse at the Charts

Traders witnessed a modest range of movements across various asset classes. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil saw some upward momentum, while major indices had a mixed performance. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, emerged as strong performers, indicating a potential resurgence in investor interest.

EURUSD Daily currently sits on a potential support level. It’s important to see if this current green candle ultimately closes as green to support bullish sentiment going forwards.

USDJPY trickles higher, but continues to express bearish divergence on the MACD– this can mean that a larger correction to the downside might be on the horizon.

Gold continues to want to head higher, but this week saw an overdue correction towards 1,940. Price could still head lower before finding support and resuming its current uptrend.

Finally, the DOW30, similar to the other global indices could not close higher this week, and appears to be considering testing fresh lows.

Similar to EURUSD, it is important to see how the weekly candle ultimately closes. A very bearish, much lower close would hint at further bear moves in the coming week. This is the least likely move based on recent performance, hence why it’s crucial to see what happens before the close.

Looking Ahead

Traders’ Watch List

The upcoming week’s economic calendar is packed with events that could sway market sentiment:

– Early in the week, statements from BOJ Governor Ueda will be dissected for any shifts in Japan’s economic outlook.

– The German ifo Business Climate index will offer a snapshot of business morale, potentially impacting the Euro.

– Midweek brings the Fed’s FOMC statement and press conference, events that traditionally spark volatility.

– The BOE’s Monetary Policy Report and comments from Governor Bailey will provide clarity on the UK’s economic stance amid challenging times.

– The week rounds out with US employment data, including Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, always a focal point for market watchers.

Final Thoughts

With a robust line-up of economic data and policy announcements, traders will need to stay vigilant. Keeping an eye on these developments can offer clues to the market’s direction and provide opportunities for strategic trades. As always, it’s essential to approach the markets with a clear strategy and an understanding of the potential risks involved.

Remember to keep an eye on FXGlobe.com for the latest market updates and expert analysis. Until next time, keep calm and carry on trading!

Last Week’s Economic Highlights

United States

A week full of action in the U.S., with unemployment claims hitting 198K, well below the projected 210K. But what grabbed headlines was the 4.9% GDP growth rate, smashing forecasts and hinting at an economy in overdrive.

Eurozone

The Eurozone painted a more muted picture with weakening Manufacturing PMIs. Germany’s industrial sector, in particular, seems to be slowing down, a possible red flag for the Eurozone economy.

United Kingdom

The UK market was surprised with a jump in the Claimant Count Change to 20.4K, way off the 2.3K forecast. This could impact Sterling in the coming days.

What the Charts Say

Commodities saw a slight uptick this week, while Indices trended downwards. The majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.) showed mixed reactions. Bitcoin broke the mold, becoming the best performer of the week, something traders hadn’t seen for a while.

Here’s the SP500 showing another week down, but not as bearish as the previous week.

The UK100 did not have as bearish a week as the U.S. markets. Another positive sign.

US Oil is still operating within a range for now.

Gold has so far not closed any higher and is still within the previous week’s range.

AUDUSD is quite strong, with a small green/bullish candle formed here.

And finally, the EURUSD seems intent on closing slightly lower after a range-bound week.

Bitcoin displays the biggest move of the week, with a clear and solid push higher.

What to Look For This Week

United States
Keep an eye on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to hold steady at 5.5%. The Employment Cost Index and consumer confidence data should also offer insights into the U.S. economy’s health.

Eurozone
Don’t ignore Germany’s Prelim CPI expected at 0.3%. It can signal how the Eurozone’s economic engine is running.

Asia
For those trading the yen, watch out for the BOJ Press Conference and the Monetary Policy Statement which could offer clues on Japan’s economic outlook.

As we head into another week, the American GDP figures set an optimistic tone. But will this optimism spill over to other markets? Only time will tell. Keep your eyes peeled, and happy trading!

That’s it for this week’s market review. Remember, the key to successful trading is to keep calm and carry on!

Last Week’s Economic Highlights

United States

A week full of action in the U.S., with unemployment claims hitting 198K, well below the projected 210K. But what grabbed headlines was the 4.9% GDP growth rate, smashing forecasts and hinting at an economy in overdrive.

Eurozone

The Eurozone painted a more muted picture with weakening Manufacturing PMIs. Germany’s industrial sector, in particular, seems to be slowing down, a possible red flag for the Eurozone economy.

United Kingdom

The UK market was surprised with a jump in the Claimant Count Change to 20.4K, way off the 2.3K forecast. This could impact Sterling in the coming days.

What the Charts Say

Commodities saw a slight uptick this week, while Indices trended downwards. The majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.) showed mixed reactions. Bitcoin broke the mold, becoming the best performer of the week, something traders hadn’t seen for a while.

Here’s the SP500 showing another week down, but not as bearish as the previous week.

The UK100 did not have as bearish a week as the U.S. markets. Another positive sign.

US Oil is still operating within a range for now.

Gold has so far not closed any higher and is still within the previous week’s range.

AUDUSD is quite strong, with a small green/bullish candle formed here.

And finally, the EURUSD seems intent on closing slightly lower after a range-bound week.

Bitcoin displays the biggest move of the week, with a clear and solid push higher.

What to Look For This Week

United States
Keep an eye on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to hold steady at 5.5%. The Employment Cost Index and consumer confidence data should also offer insights into the U.S. economy’s health.

Eurozone
Don’t ignore Germany’s Prelim CPI expected at 0.3%. It can signal how the Eurozone’s economic engine is running.

Asia
For those trading the yen, watch out for the BOJ Press Conference and the Monetary Policy Statement which could offer clues on Japan’s economic outlook.

As we head into another week, the American GDP figures set an optimistic tone. But will this optimism spill over to other markets? Only time will tell. Keep your eyes peeled, and happy trading!

That’s it for this week’s market review. Remember, the key to successful trading is to keep calm and carry on!

U.S. Data Discrepancies

One of the major highlights from last week was the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which came in at a disappointing -4.6, although it was better than the forecasted -6.4. This paints a less-than-rosy picture for the manufacturing sector in the New York region, suggesting that traders should tread carefully.

New Zealand CPI Misses the Mark

The New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the last quarter was also noteworthy. While it increased to 1.8%, it fell slightly short of the 1.9% forecast, signaling that inflationary pressures are still a concern but not as intense as anticipated.

Retail Sales Surprise

In contrast, U.S. Retail Sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.7% compared to the forecast of 0.3%. This suggests that consumer spending, a crucial component of economic growth, remains robust.

Unemployment Trends

U.S. Unemployment Claims dipped to 198K, beating the forecast of 210K. This could be indicative of a stronger job market and could have implications for future monetary policy.

Market Trends

Currencies & Commodities

In the forex market, EURUSD is looking like it may break higher. Gold, in particular, has been the market’s shining star, suggesting investor preference for safe havens.

Crypto & Oil

Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oils are also displaying bullish tendencies, suggesting that traders are looking for higher yields despite higher risks.

Equities and Indices

On the downside, Equities and Global Indices ended the week with strong bearish signals right at major support levels. This could hint at significant selling pressure in the coming week.

What to Watch in the Week Ahead

British Economic Indicators

Claimant Count Change data from the UK will be a focal point. Any significant deviations could impact the Pound and UK equities.

PMI Data

Various Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and the U.S. will be released. These are key indicators of economic health.

Federal Reserve Speeches

Fed Chair Powell will be speaking twice this week. His comments could have far-reaching impacts on the U.S. Dollar and equities.

Core PCE Price Index

On Friday, the U.S. Core PCE Price Index will be released, with a month-on-month expected growth rate of 0.3%. This is another key indicator of inflation and can influence the Fed’s monetary policy.

Looking at the charts, we see EURUSD printing a very bullish weekly candle, showing the EUR’s intention to push higher. How much higher is still to be seen.

The gold chart shows nothing but bullish price action. However, the price must surely retrace during the week before pushing higher. Is 2,000 the next major target?

Now, to the Global Indices:

The SP500 very large, bearish candle, selling until the close- next week it will be important to watch how the next candle unfolds!

UT100 tech stocks have also produced a heavy selling candle, so the pressure is clearly to the downside.

US30 has a bearish engulfing, tight close. The bears are really putting the pressure on!

Keep your eyes peeled and your strategies flexible to navigate through these potentially market-moving events. Good luck and happy trading!

Last Week’s Economic Indicators

• U.S. Core PPI m/m: The Producer Price Index for the United States beat forecasts, coming in at 0.3%, compared to the expected 0.2%. This may be an early indicator of increasing inflationary pressures.
• U.K. GDP m/m: The Gross Domestic Product for the United Kingdom matched forecasts, maintaining stability with a 0.2% monthly growth rate.
• U.S. CPI and Unemployment Claims: Unemployment Claims were steady, and the Consumer Price Index numbers signaled ongoing inflationary pressures.

The State of the Markets

In chart analysis, the U.S. Dollar made a strong comeback towards the week’s end. Though still viewed as over-extended and ripe for a broader correction, this doesn’t seem to be in the cards for this week. Therefore, traders should remain cautious.

Gold and Crude Oil seem to be poised for a bullish run. Indices are also seeing some buying activity, but not as strongly as commodities. The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, which could be an opportunity for contrarian traders.

Charts of Interest

GBPUSD (similar to EURUSD) weekly chart show a trend-continuation candle right near support. This make it likely that price ‘wants’ to keep going lower, but could also encounter resistance at the levels as well. Enough to turn it around? Too soon to tell.

Gold is the clear winner here, with a rare and impressive burst higher. Aside from natural retracements, it’s not unreasonable to expect it to keep this up.

UK100 not looking bad at all. A fair possibility of moves higher in the coming week.

The US30 also looking tentatively bullish, with the emphasis on tentatively.

US500 has attracted some buyers, but enough to turn it around here?

US Oil looks incredibly bullish here. Clean uptrend and solid on support.

What’s On the Horizon?

• U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index: A significant dip is projected, falling to -6.4.
• New Zealand’s CPI q/q: An uptick to 1.9% is forecasted, which could stir some market action in the NZD pairs.
• U.K. Claimant Count Change: Expected to rise, reflecting potential volatility in the GBP.
• U.S. Retail Sales m/m: A dip is anticipated, which could have repercussions for consumer-related stocks and the USD.

And don’t forget to mark your calendars for Fed Chair Powell’s speech later in the week. It’s bound to have implications for the U.S. Dollar and possibly broader markets.

That wraps up our weekly review. To learn more, visit FXGlobe.com. Remember—keep calm and carry on trading!