As the most closely watched gauge of employment and economic health, nonfarm payrolls can spark explosive moves in currency pairs lasting well beyond the release minute.

For skilled forex traders, mastering NFP trading strategies represents a major edge. Time entries right as the print hits, and you stand to gain from substantial volatility and liquidity. But miss your window or mismanage risk, and you may face brutal slippage from whipsaws. New traders should paper trade NFPs until consistent in executing plans.

This extensive guide explores all facets of trading nonfarm payrolls successfully and consistently, including:

• Calculating NFP figures and importance as an economic indicator.
• Release timing and accessing projections plus actual data.
• Interpreting forecasts versus actual job growth intelligently.
• Leveraging various chart patterns and trends around announcements.
• Executing tactical trade entry and exit strategies around the release.
• Implementing prudent risk management and psychology.
• Case studies and lessons from historical NFP events.
• Key takeaways for trading NFPs profitably each month.

Let’s get started breaking down this high-impact news event, top trading strategies, and how to generate consistent performance from volatile NFP prints.

What are Nonfarm Payrolls and Why do they Matters?

On the first Friday each month at 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its monthly employment report including the headline nonfarm payrolls figure. So, what exactly does this widely watched metric mean?

Defining Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm payrolls measure the net change in employed workers during the previous month across all US business sectors excluding farm employees, private household employees, nonprofits, proprietors, serve in the military, the unincorporated self-employed and certain government agencies.

NFP provides a comprehensive look at job growth across over 80% of American employment. Gains signal economic expansion while declines may reflect softening conditions.

Why NFP Moves Markets

By influencing outlooks on the broader US economy, business cycle and monetary policy, NFP significantly impacts forex and other markets.

• Positive NFP lifts dollar valuation based on a strong US economic outlook.
• High job growth raises expectations of Fed rate hikes which supports the dollar.
• Downside NFP surprises weaken the dollar as easy Fed policy is anticipated.
• Major deviations between forecasts and actuals fuel heavy volatility and liquidity.

Clearly, seasoned traders watch NFP carefully each month for invaluable signals about upcoming USD and general market dynamics. Gaining an edge around releases can pay major dividends.

Now that we’ve covered the importance of NFP data, let’s examine how the widely followed statistic gets calculated.

How the NFP Statistic Gets Calculated Each Month

A multi-step process involving extensive surveys underpins the final NFP number each month. Here is how the BLS compiles the report:

Step 1: Review Payroll Records from Businesses

The process starts by reviewing employment records submitted throughout the month by over 400,000 US companies. Figures are categorized by industry sector, firm size, location, and other attributes.

Step 2: Conduct Household Employment Survey

This survey covers 60,000 households, questioning household members on their employment status throughout the prior month. Questions determine whether individuals worked, looked for work, were unemployed, etc. These household responses supplement business payroll records.

Step 3: Develop Estimates of Total Nonfarm Employment

By combining business payrolls with household survey results, BLS economists generate estimates of total US nonfarm employment levels for the reporting month. Adjustments are made to account for new business formations or closures.

Step 4: Calculate Monthly Change in Payrolls

Finally, the headline monthly NFP growth figure is calculated by comparing the current month’s employment level to the prior month. The net change represents total US job gains or losses, excluding specified categories like farms.

This rigorous methodology ensures an accurate snapshot of job creation across the extensive US labor market. With so much riding on the number, the BLS goes to great lengths ensure NFP credibility and precision month to month.

Now that we’ve reviewed what goes into NFP, let’s shift to release logistics and interpreting the data from a trading perspective.

Interpreting NFP Reports and Forecasts Intelligently

To trade NFP announcements profitably, you must analyze the actual print intelligently in the context of projections and prior months’ reports. Follow this process:

Compile Consensus Forecast of Economists

In the week ahead of NFP, economists publish their projections for the next print. Track leading forecasts from banks and analysts to gauge expectations. Compile a consensus estimate based on average projections.

Review Previous Month’s NFP and Subsequent Revisions

Put the upcoming print in context by reviewing the previous month’s NFP figure. Were the past 1-2 months especially strong or weak? Also check for any revisions to prior prints.

Analyze Actual Print vs. Forecasts Immediately

Once the actual current NFP figure crosses at 8:30 AM, instantly compare it to economist forecasts. If actual job growth exceeds expectations, dollar strength typically results. If NFP disappoints relative to projections, USD weakens.

Benchmark Against Historical Averages and Trends

Keep longer term averages in mind when evaluating prints. Monthly gains above 200,000 indicate solid expansion while drops below 100,000 are concerning. But focus on momentum rather than just absolute numbers.

Consider Other Employment Metrics Too

Beyond headline NFP, also analyze the unemployment rate, labor force participation, hourly wages, and underemployment to build a complete picture. But NFP drives most volatility.

Update Your Bias Accordingly in Real-Time

Assess how actual NFP aligns with your projections, and update bias accordingly. If prints align with your outlook, proceed accordingly. But if NFP flips expectations, nimbly adjust.

Accurately deciphering NFP reports relative to estimates and historical data provides the context needed to trade releases prudently. Now let’s turn to executable trading strategies.

Tactical Trading Strategies to Capitalize on NFP Volatility

Attention here:

Before detailing trading strategies, we must state that the following content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. CFDs carry significant risk and traders must conduct their own research and fully understand the risks prior to trading.

No trading approach is without potential risk of capital loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always practice prudent risk management when trading, and never risk more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

The author and publisher accept no liability for any trading actions taken based on the strategies discussed.

Now, with the proper risk disclaimer stated, here are some tactical trading strategies traders may look to utilize around the release of NFP data:

Commonly Used Breakout Strategy Using OCO Bracket Orders

This commonly utilized strategy aims to capture volatility from whichever direction price breaks out:

1. You might start with placing a buy-stop and sell-stop order 10-20 pips above and below market price before the release.
2. Attach take profit and stop loss orders to each pending order, forming an OCO bracket.
3. Upon NFP release, one order will trigger depending on the breakout direction. The other OCO order automatically cancels.
4. Target quick profits as momentum peaks then reverses. Define risk upfront with stops.
5. Adjust strategy based on pre-release bias – for example, favoring upside breakouts if strong NFP expected.

Executed well, OCO breakout strategies allow reacting swiftly to sudden price movements in either direction following a print.

Pre-Release Directional Bias Strategies

Alternatively, traders may speculatively take directional positions aligned with NFP expectations:

1. If forecasts suggest upside surprises, go long USD in anticipation of positive NFP data.
2. If economists expect downside NFP surprises, go short USD positioning for disappointment.
3. Scale position size based on degree of conviction in alignment with projections.
4. Quickly take profits on moves in your favor following 8:30 AM. Close positions within 1-2 hours.
5. Cut losses quickly if actual NFP triggers heavy counter-momentum. Stick to your stop loss.

Directional trades betting on forecast overshoots requires using prudent risk management in case of reversals. Define exits.

Trading Price Chart Patterns Around Releases

Beyond fundamental strategies, technical patterns may signal opportune entries:

• Wedges: Tightening wedge patterns that break out rapidly at 8:30 AM.
• Flags/Pennants: Continuation patterns that resume momentum after volatile consolidation.
• **Cup & Handle: **Cup patterns that trigger breakouts exceeding prior high.
• Double Tops / Bottoms: Reversals confirmed by NFP reactions at key technical levels.

Incorporate chart patterns with fundamental signals for high probability setups.

Managing Risk and Psychology Trading NFP

Despite strategic approach, maintain discipline:

• Curb position size – never risk more than 1-2% of capital per trade.
• Allow profits to run but set clear exit rules and targets.
• Accept stop loss hits – don’t chase price or deviate from plans.
• If unsure, sit out releases until conviction develops through practice.

The speed of moves rewards discipline. Trading psychology must align with risk management principles.

Now that we’ve surveyed various trading strategies, let’s assess past examples.

Case Studies and Lessons from Previous NFP Releases

Analyzing historical NFP announcements provides helpful behavioral context and lessons on trading them. Consider these examples:

Reviewing past behaviors provides learning experiences on adapting bias, trading volatile surprises, and managing risk. Now let’s conclude with final tips.

Key Takeaways for Trading NFP Successfully

Here are core principles to recap as you look to trade upcoming NFP events profitably:

• Closely follow economist projections pre-release to gauge expectations.
• Interpret actual NFP prints relative to forecasts and historical data intelligently.
• Understand surges in either direction impact currency pairs, sometimes substantially.
• Consider various strategies like breakouts, directional trades, and technical setups.
• Employ rigorous risk management – limit size, use stops, set profit targets.
• Review past trades to continuously improve execution.

While volatile, NFP presents recurring monthly opportunities if approached strategically. Blend fundamentals with technical cues while exercising prudent risk practices.

I hope these insights provide a helpful guide as you formulate plans to trade future NFP releases skillfully. Let me know if you have any other questions as the next event approaches!

Destaques da Semana:

• EUA: Foco no PCE O índice de preços de gastos com consumo (PCE), a métrica de inflação preferida pelo Federal Reserve (Fed), será divulgado na quinta-feira (29). Este dado é fundamental para as decisões do Fed na próxima reunião sobre taxas de juros.
• Brasil: IPCA-15 e PIB em Pauta Na terça-feira (27), o IPCA-15 trará uma prévia da inflação oficial. Já na quarta-feira (28), sai o PIB do quarto trimestre de 2023, indicador importante do desempenho econômico brasileiro.
• Americanas no Vermelho: A divulgação do prejuízo líquido de R$ 4,611 bilhões nos nove primeiros meses de 2023 impactou as ações da Americanas (AMER3).
• Resultados Corporativos dos EUA: Importantes empresas americanas divulgam seus balanços, incluindo Salesforce (quarta-feira), Apple e Amazon (quinta-feira).

Panorama Global

• Bolsas Asiáticas Misturadas: As bolsas na Ásia fecharam sem uma tendência única. O Nikkei (Japão) subiu, enquanto o Xangai Composto (China) encerrou em baixa.
• Europa em Queda: Os mercados europeus operam em baixa acompanhando o clima de cautela global.
• Petróleo e Minério de Ferro Recuam: Os preços dessas importantes commodities caem refletindo preocupações com a inflação e com a demanda global.

Fique de olho! Acompanhe atualizações sobre esses e outros indicadores ao longo da semana para compreender melhor a movimentação dos mercados.

Na esfera doméstica, os investidores aguardam o índice IBC-Br do Banco Central para dezembro – tido como uma prévia do PIB– com previsão de crescimento de 0,4%. Já no âmbito corporativo, as empresas Americanas e Carrefour divulgam seus resultados após o encerramento dos mercados.

Os mercados europeus, por sua vez, iniciaram a semana em baixa, revertendo a tendência positiva da semana anterior. O petróleo sofre queda nos preços, influenciado por comentários do Federal Reserve (Fed) indicando uma postura mais gradual em relação a potenciais cortes nas taxas de juros. Outra commodity importante, o minério de ferro, também apresenta recuo na China devido ao aumento nos estoques e fracas margens do aço.

Destaques do Dia

• EUA em compasso de espera: A pausa para o feriado do Dia do Presidente mantém as bolsas de Nova York fechadas hoje. No entanto, há uma busca geral de recuperação após a interrupção da sequência de altas recente.
• Otimismo Chinês: Os investidores chineses demonstram forte confiança na retomada econômica, respaldados por números positivos no turismo durante o Ano Novo Lunar. O Banco Central Chinês (PBoC) manteve sua taxa básica de juros inalterada, mas há expectativa de cortes ainda hoje.
• Brasil na expectativa: O foco está no IBC-Br de dezembro e nos resultados da Americanas e Carrefour. Estes indicadores podem dar pistas sobre o desempenho da economia brasileira e do setor de varejo.
• Europa recua, Petróleo cai: A Europa parece corrigir uma semana positiva, enquanto os comentários do Fed sobre taxas de juros afetam diretamente as cotações do petróleo.
• Minério de Ferro recua: A commodity vital para a indústria do aço sofre pressão na China diante de fatores como aumento de estoques e margens reduzidas.

Fique atento para maiores atualizações dos mercados ao longo do dia!

En el artículo de hoy, vamos a analizar el cierre del año 2023 para diferentes activos que tenemos en cartera y los escenarios que tenemos para ellos. Nos centraremos en ver métricas que puedan afectar al desempeño a medio plazo de estos mercados y un curioso dato de la acción con mejor desempeño del año. Nvidia.

De momento, empezamos viendo el gráfico del precio de la acción. Ahora viene haciendo un ligero retroceso, y estamos llegando a zonas de soportes que nos marcan el retroceso 38 de Fibonacci y la media simple de 200 sesiones. Quizás podamos ver rebotes en continuación tendencial en estos entornos.

Pero os vamos a compartir una métrica no tan positiva para este tramo final. Y es que está empresa está llegando a una estacionalidad que no le favorece mucho. Vemos en la imagen de abajo que el mes de diciembre es el peor mes de largo. Veremos este año como evoluciona.

Vamos a ver qué pasa con los agregados, es decir, con los índices. De primeras vemos que hay un activo que está poniendo en precio la posible recesión de 2024 y otro que no.

Observamos que el gap que se está creando entre la renta variable y el petróleo es enorme. Obviamente en una situación recesiva, baja la demanda del crudo y por tanto suele bajar su precio. Pero en los mercados de acciones estamos casi en máximos históricos. Es cierto que estamos en una estacionalidad muy favorable, veremos si el 2024 es un año duro o no para estos mercados.

Si pensamos en los indicadores macroeconómicos podemos pensar que es muy probable ver una recesión, o por lo menos una desaceleración. Vemos como los grandes fondos de inversión están aumentando sus niveles de liquidez a niveles que no veíamos hace años.

Pero también es cierto, que estamos ante un año un tanto excepcional, ya que es año de elecciones en Estados Unidos. Fijémonos cómo en estos años, el S&P 500 nunca ha caído durante un año de reelección presidencial y, a pesar de la volatilidad de mercado a corto plazo que es común con la temporada electoral, el desempeño de las acciones es en gran medida independiente de qué partido toma el control de la Casa Blanca

Por lo tanto tenemos factores favorables y desfavorables para el año que viene. Lo ideal será seguirlo día a día, ya que al final, es el precio el que manda y el que nos marcará el camino.

El que está dejando menos dudas, y además tiene unos fundamentales que parecen excelentes por delante es el Bitcoin. Seguimos con las fuertes subida provocadas por la fiebre de los ETFs al contado. Además hay rumores sobre como países como Colombia también lo podrían adoptar, o como el fondo Soberano de Riqueza de Qatar ha ingresado al mercado de Bitcoin y podría estar interesado en comprar hasta $500 mil millones en BTC.

Esto representaría más de la mitad de la capitalización actual de la criptomoneda. De momento esto son solo rumores, pero lo que está claro es que la adopción global continúa creciendo.

Además, observamos como una gran parte de los inversores, los holders, no sueltan el activo ni con las tremendas subidas que estamos teniendo en este 2023. Si nos fijamos en el gráfico que os comparto abajo, comprobamos cómo aunque el precio ha subido casi un 150% en lo que va de año, la cantidad de bitcoin en circulación que no se ha movido en 1 año o más, alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico durante el fin de semana del 70,5%.

En resumen, este si parece un activo que nos está mostrando cualidades positivas para seguir acumulando. La estrategia de TradingPRO es hacer DCA (Dollar cost averaging), que es básicamente el ir acumulando todos los meses mientras vamos adquiriendo a diferentes precios, promediando la tendencia alcista a largo plazo.

En resumen, se viene un final de año, donde parece que la tendencia predominante puede continuar, pero se avecina un 2024, donde lo que hoy es fiesta,s e puede convertir en un funeral. Lo estaremos siguiendo, como siempre, en la comunidad de FXGlobe.

This week in the financial markets was a roller coaster of events, affecting currencies, commodities, and indices worldwide. Let’s dive into the key happenings and their implications for traders.

Key Economic Events

Earlier This Week:

• Monday: The week started with a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, setting the tone for the GBP.
• Tuesday: The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes offered insights into the US Federal Reserve’s stance, impacting USD movements.
• Wednesday: In the US, unemployment claims came in lower than expected at 209K, boosting sentiment towards the labor market. However, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment was slightly adjusted upwards, indicating a cautiously optimistic consumer outlook.
• Thursday: Europe showed mixed signals with its Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, suggesting ongoing challenges in the Eurozone economy. The UK’s Manufacturing PMI outperformed forecasts, providing a glimmer of hope for the British economy.
• Friday: The US’s Flash Manufacturing PMI slightly underperformed, while Services PMI beat expectations, painting a complex picture of the US economic landscape.

Looking Ahead:

• Tuesday, Nov 28: CB Consumer Confidence in the US will be a key indicator to watch, potentially influencing market sentiment.
• Wednesday, Nov 29: The NZD will be in focus with the Official Cash Rate decision and the RBNZ’s monetary policy statements.
• Thursday, Nov 30: The day will be significant with the OPEC-JMMC Meetings and US economic data releases, including the Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment Claims.
• Friday, Dec 1: A pivotal day for the US with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

Market Analysis

In the Charts:

• Forex and Commodities: The past week saw widespread gains against the USD, particularly notable in the indices. Silver showed potential for further upside, while Crude Oil indicated a struggle in determining its direction.
• Indices: After recent gains, technical retracements seem likely, hinting at potential shifts in market dynamics.

Bitcoin is trying to build up to a bullish breakout here, however, if it falls down through the upwards-sloping trendline, it could head down to the next support level before resuming an uptrend.

The U.S. Indices are nice and bullish, but also due for a natural retracement in the near future.

U.S. Oil is still in a downtrend, but has started to display more mixed sentiment.

Gold really testing resistance at the moment – although there are likely to be sellers pushing back, Gold might achieve brand new highs in the near-to-medium future.

Potential Outlook:

The coming week promises to be just as eventful, with significant economic data and statements on the horizon.

Traders should particularly keep an eye on the developments in the US and Eurozone, as well as any geopolitical events that might influence market directions.

That’s our wrap-up for this week. Stay informed and prepared as we navigate these dynamic markets together. For more insights and trading tips, visit FXGlobe.com. And remember, always trade wisely and stay vigilant!

Related Article: https://www.fxglobe.com/what-should-traders-do-when-markets-are-too-volatile/

El optimismo en los mercados parece seguir instalado y las fechas de acción de gracias, BlackFriday y las posteriores navidades, suelen ser fechas estacionalmente alcistas para estos activos.

En el artículo de hoy, vamos a analizar qué esperamos para los índices americanos en este tramo final de año, con esas fechas tan destacadas. Cómo el Bitcoin sigue fuerte y celebra la victoria de otro presidente que lo apoya, Milei en Argentina, mientras seguimos a la espera de la aprobación de los ETFs de Bitcoin al contado.

Temporada de resultados corporativos

De primeras, seguimos en temporada de resultados corporativos de las principales empresas del SP500. Os lo compartimos para que lo tengáis en cuenta si estáis invertido en alguna de estas. Destaca claramente Nvidia, una de las 7 magníficas, que desde nuestro punto de vista está bastante sobrevalorada con un PER por encima del 120.

Bueno, vamos a empezar primero por el escenario que nos propone uno de los grandes de Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs nos plantea su escenario sobre el SP500 en uno de sus últimos research. Si idea es una en el S&P500 lateralidad hasta mediados de 2024 y luego subida a los 4.700 puntos. Os compartimos la imagen:

Desde Morgan Stanley, leemos también como su jefe de estrategia, el “bearish” Mike Wilson también prevé un final de año sin grandes subidas. De hecho dice que los inversores que están esperando un rally de navidad podrán verse decepcionados. Dice que los repuntes en el último trimestre están bajando considerablemente.

Consejo del mercado

Sabemos que ahora el consenso del mercado descuenta que los tipos de interés quizás empiecen a bajar en la reunión de mayo.

La inflación parece que cada vez está más cerca de controlarse (veremos que hace el petróleo en los siguientes meses) y por lo tanto los principales bancos centrales pueden volver a políticas monetarias expansivas. Eso el mercado lo suele celebrar.

Os vamos a compartir un gráfico que es muy interesante, relacionado con lo que veníamos comentando:

Vemos que invertir en el S&P 500 cuando estaba en una tendencia alcista y las tasas estaban cayendo habría tenido un rendimiento del 14,5% anual.

Comparación con el SP500

Compare eso con el escaso 0,79% anual cuando el S&P 500 estaba en una tendencia alcista, pero las tasas de interés estaban subiendo. Por lo tanto, podemos decir que en los últimos 50 años casi todos los rendimientos en el S&P 500 se han logrado cuando las tasas estaban cayendo.

Si nos fijamos en particular en el sector tecnológico, vemos que Microsoft y Apple representan el 30% del Nasdaq y cotizan a los niveles de valoración más altos desde la crisis PuntoCom. Vemos que Apple lleva 5 trimestres en recesión de earnings y Microsoft con dinámicas burbujísticas debido a la IA. Esto,obviamente muestra que tenemos mucho riesgo para este índice en el medio plazo:

Por lo tanto, en nuestra opinión para la renta variable americana, la tendencia sigue siendo clara, y a corto plazo no tenemos indicadores técnicos que no marquen giro de mercado, pero entendemos que el 2024 puede ser un año complicado y hay que ir con pies de plomo.

El Bitcoin y su ganancia de precio

El Bitcoin, en cambio, sigue flotando en noticias muy positivas, seguimos esperando al halving de abril y a las aprobaciones de los ETFs en enero. En relación a estas posibles aprobaciones, vemos una comparativa de lo que pasó cuando aprobaron el ETF del oro.

Estamos esperando el bull run y, como ya hemos dicho en alguna anterior ocasión, esperamos que nos acerquemos a los máximos históricos a finales del año 2024. Nuestro escenario es seguir haciendo dca (acumulando) mientras se encuentre en estos entornos de los 30.000-40.000.

Como siempre, seguiremos todas estas ideas en los siguientes artículos. !Buen trading!

Last Week’s Economic Highlights

United States

A week full of action in the U.S., with unemployment claims hitting 198K, well below the projected 210K. But what grabbed headlines was the 4.9% GDP growth rate, smashing forecasts and hinting at an economy in overdrive.

Eurozone

The Eurozone painted a more muted picture with weakening Manufacturing PMIs. Germany’s industrial sector, in particular, seems to be slowing down, a possible red flag for the Eurozone economy.

United Kingdom

The UK market was surprised with a jump in the Claimant Count Change to 20.4K, way off the 2.3K forecast. This could impact Sterling in the coming days.

What the Charts Say

Commodities saw a slight uptick this week, while Indices trended downwards. The majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.) showed mixed reactions. Bitcoin broke the mold, becoming the best performer of the week, something traders hadn’t seen for a while.

Here’s the SP500 showing another week down, but not as bearish as the previous week.

The UK100 did not have as bearish a week as the U.S. markets. Another positive sign.

US Oil is still operating within a range for now.

Gold has so far not closed any higher and is still within the previous week’s range.

AUDUSD is quite strong, with a small green/bullish candle formed here.

And finally, the EURUSD seems intent on closing slightly lower after a range-bound week.

Bitcoin displays the biggest move of the week, with a clear and solid push higher.

What to Look For This Week

United States
Keep an eye on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to hold steady at 5.5%. The Employment Cost Index and consumer confidence data should also offer insights into the U.S. economy’s health.

Eurozone
Don’t ignore Germany’s Prelim CPI expected at 0.3%. It can signal how the Eurozone’s economic engine is running.

Asia
For those trading the yen, watch out for the BOJ Press Conference and the Monetary Policy Statement which could offer clues on Japan’s economic outlook.

As we head into another week, the American GDP figures set an optimistic tone. But will this optimism spill over to other markets? Only time will tell. Keep your eyes peeled, and happy trading!

That’s it for this week’s market review. Remember, the key to successful trading is to keep calm and carry on!

Last Week’s Economic Highlights

United States

A week full of action in the U.S., with unemployment claims hitting 198K, well below the projected 210K. But what grabbed headlines was the 4.9% GDP growth rate, smashing forecasts and hinting at an economy in overdrive.

Eurozone

The Eurozone painted a more muted picture with weakening Manufacturing PMIs. Germany’s industrial sector, in particular, seems to be slowing down, a possible red flag for the Eurozone economy.

United Kingdom

The UK market was surprised with a jump in the Claimant Count Change to 20.4K, way off the 2.3K forecast. This could impact Sterling in the coming days.

What the Charts Say

Commodities saw a slight uptick this week, while Indices trended downwards. The majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc.) showed mixed reactions. Bitcoin broke the mold, becoming the best performer of the week, something traders hadn’t seen for a while.

Here’s the SP500 showing another week down, but not as bearish as the previous week.

The UK100 did not have as bearish a week as the U.S. markets. Another positive sign.

US Oil is still operating within a range for now.

Gold has so far not closed any higher and is still within the previous week’s range.

AUDUSD is quite strong, with a small green/bullish candle formed here.

And finally, the EURUSD seems intent on closing slightly lower after a range-bound week.

Bitcoin displays the biggest move of the week, with a clear and solid push higher.

What to Look For This Week

United States
Keep an eye on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to hold steady at 5.5%. The Employment Cost Index and consumer confidence data should also offer insights into the U.S. economy’s health.

Eurozone
Don’t ignore Germany’s Prelim CPI expected at 0.3%. It can signal how the Eurozone’s economic engine is running.

Asia
For those trading the yen, watch out for the BOJ Press Conference and the Monetary Policy Statement which could offer clues on Japan’s economic outlook.

As we head into another week, the American GDP figures set an optimistic tone. But will this optimism spill over to other markets? Only time will tell. Keep your eyes peeled, and happy trading!

That’s it for this week’s market review. Remember, the key to successful trading is to keep calm and carry on!

Let’s dive into the economic indicators, chart movements, and major events that defined the trading week, and see what might be in store for the days ahead.

Last Week’s Economic Indicators

U.S. Data

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: The week kicked off with the ISM Manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.0, surpassing expectations of 47.8 but still showing contraction in the sector.
• JOLTS Job Openings: A notable beat with 9.61 million job openings, significantly outperforming the expected 8.81 million.
• Non-Farm Employment Change: This was the headline of the week. A smashing 336K jobs were added, leaving forecasts in the dust and reinvigorating discussions about economic recovery.

Australian and New Zealand Data

• AUD Cash Rate: Held steady at 4.10%, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing a rate statement that didn’t rock the boat.
• NZD Official Cash Rate: Remained unchanged at 5.50%, with no unexpected twists in the RBNZ’s rate statement.

Chart Analysis: What the Market is Telling Us

The USD had a volatile session, surging on the NFP release but then reversing its gains aggressively. We observed bullish engulfing candles in the daily charts across all asset classes. This could indicate a weakening USD and opportunities in EURUSD, Silver, Bitcoin, and global indices. The US30 producing a very bullish engulfing candle off of support suggests an interest in pushing higher in the coming days.

The TECH100 weekly chart here is now producing a strong bullish candle off of support, even as the prior week’s candle was also bullish off support. Another signal of the intent to climb higher next.

USOil has retraced on the weekly down to a recent major support level. The trend is still up, but will it hold. If it does, this is where it could turn.

EURUSD weekly, after 11 red weeks, we have our first green weekly candle, and a bullish rejection candle at that. A positive sign, implying that a move higher could be on the cards next.

Looking Ahead: Key Events for Next Week

• U.S. Core CPI and CPI m/m: With inflation on everyone’s mind, these metrics could influence market direction.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve’s thoughts on the current economic situation may trigger market movements.
• GBP GDP m/m: After a decline of 0.5% last month, the market is looking for a 0.2% growth. How this will affect the pound remains to be seen.

The market moves from last week have set up the coming week for some potentially strong reversals in several asset classes. As traders, we’re always looking for these kinds of opportunities. So, gear up for another exciting week ahead!

That’s it from FXGlobe for this week. For more in-depth analyses and market opportunities, don’t forget to visit FXGlobe.com. Keep calm and carry on trading!

Last week was a rollercoaster ride in the financial markets, featuring some key economic indicators and chart patterns that hint at the future.

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September took a hit, falling from 108.7 to 103.0. With less optimistic consumers, the American dollar is showing signs of vulnerability.

On the other hand, the Australian CPI saw a steady rise, reaching 5.2% YoY, exceeding the previous month’s 4.9%. Could this strengthen the Aussie in the weeks to come?

Technical Analysis Insights

On the technical front, the EURUSD pair had a fascinating week. After 11 weeks of relentless decline, the currency pair finally showed a bullish tail. This development could hint at a change in momentum, providing traders with fresh opportunities.

Commodities had a mixed week, with both Gold and Silver closing lower. Crude Oils and Cryptocurrencies, however, bucked the trend and finished higher.

As for the global indices, they teased new lows but ended much higher, signaling what could be the end of the bearish run.

What’s Coming Next?

Now, let’s look forward to the week ahead:

–Monday: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and a speech from Fed Chair Powell.

– Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its Cash Rate, expected to stay at 4.10%.

– Wednesday: New Zealand Official Cash Rate announcement.

– Thursday: Another round of U.S. Unemployment Claims.

And we can’t overlook Friday! Buckle up for Non-Farm Payroll, a key U.S. employment figure that has the power to shake markets. Given the state of U.S. consumer confidence, traders will watch this data closely.

In The Charts

First up, is the NASDAQ (tech100) setting up to hold support and push back now?

The EURUSD weekly chart also produced a bullish tail at support. Not a strong one, but could it mean that price will move higher next?

Bitcoin continues to show bullish behaviour off recent support.

Conclusion

Whether you trade Forex, commodities, or indices, make sure you stay updated with economic news and market trends. After all, an informed trader is a successful trader.

That’s all for this week’s review. Stay tuned for our next update and as always, trade wisely!

Please be informed,
That due to the upcoming Holidays on October 2023,
Trading hours will be adjusted as follows:

Lastly, please consider all the risks associated with trading. You may refer to our Legal Documentation on our website.

Please note, all time displayed are GMT +3.
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